The pattern of Russian and American airstrikes in Syria leaves little question about the divergent goals of the two countries. Both countries have said they want to defeat terrorist groups like the Islamic State, but in Syria,Russia’s definition of terrorist encompasses some groups that are allies of the United States.
Russian airstrikes, Sept. 30 to Oct. 4
Russia has mostly attacked rebels fighting the government, not ISIS. Targets include some American-backed rebel groups and groups which the United States considers terrorist organizations.
U.S. airstrikes, Sept. 25 to Oct. 4
The United States has focused on ISIS and on supporting Kurdish forces. But Americans have also hit some targets that could benefit the Syrian government, like in Palmyra and Deir al-Zour.
“This bombing of the CIA-trained rebels is a serious issue for the U.S., which wants to avoid direct proxy warfare against Russia, like in the 1980s Afghan war, but can’t simply let the Russians target their partners repeatedly,” said Lila Ghosh, an analyst at the Soufan Group, a security consultancy firm. “The Russians are, in effect, forcing the U.S. to consider broadening its narrow anti-Islamic State focus to an anti-Assad focus, which is a significant shift in policy and has massive repercussions.”
Most of the Targets Have Been Far From ISIS Territory
The United States and other nations that have been supporting rebel groups fighting President Bashar al-Assad issued a statement calling on Russia to stop targeting other opposition groups and focus on the Islamic State. Detailed data on who controls which areas of the country, collected by the Carter Center, showed that most of the targets hit by Russia are in Syria's northwest, where other rebel groups, not the Islamic State, are in control.
TURKEY
Kobani
Hasaka
Manbij
KURDISH CONTROL
Al Bab
Aleppo
ISIS
CONTROL
Idlib
Raqqa
REBEL
CONTROL
Ath Thawra
Jisr al-Shoughour
Euphrates River
Maarat al-Noaman
Deir al-Zour
Hama
GOVERNMENT
CONTROL
SYRIA
Mayadin
Salamiyah
Homs
Control as of Oct. 1
Government
Rebel
ISIS
Kurdish
Palmyra
Sparsely
populated areas
LEBANON
By The New York Times|Sources: The Carter Center (areas of control); Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (some targets)
How Control of Syria Has Shifted
Rebel groups seized territory from Syrian government forces in June 2011, although their hold was tenuous until 2012. Control of the country has become increasingly fractured: Rebels have gained territory, the Islamic State has established itself firmly and the Syrian government has given control of some northern areas to Kurdish groups in exchange for support.
Rebel groups held areas throughout Syria, while the Islamic State controlled territory mostly in the northwest.
The Islamic State rapidly gained territory in 2014, establishing governance in Raqqa and controlling the Euphrates River to Iraq.
Kurdish groups pushed the Islamic State out of some northern regions. Rebel forces gained control of some areas in Idlib province.
Many of the Initial Airstrikes Were Near the
Boundaries Between Government and Rebel Zones
Deir Hanna
Jabal al Akrad
Ghmam
Maarat al-Noaman
REBEL
CONTROL
GOVERNMENT
CONTROL
Area of
detail
Kafr Zita
Jabla
SYRIA
Ltamenah
5 MILES
Hama
5 MILES
Tlol al-Humur
GOVERNMENT
CONTROL
ISIS
CONTROL
Salamiyah
Ar Rastan
Deir Foul
REBEL
CONTROL
Alzaafaranah
Talbisah
SYRIA
Area of
detail
Homs
By The New York Times|Source: The Carter Center (areas of control)
Who Controls Which Areas in Syria
Four groups have claimed control over a divided Syria. Government forces hold the center of most of Syria’s largest cities, while various rebel forces are stronger in the north and northeast. The Islamic State continues to hold most of the corridor along the Euphrates River. Kurdish forces occupy northern Syria, along the country’s border with Turkey.
TURKEY
Qamishli
KURDISH
CONTROL
Kobani
Hasaka
Manbij
Aleppo
ISIS
CONTROL
Idlib
Raqqa
REBEL
CONTROL
Euphrates River
Latakia
SYRIA
Deir al-Zour
GOVERNMENT
CONTROL
IRAQ
Tartus
Homs
Palmyra
Abu Kamal
Sparsely
populated areas
LEBANON
Damascus
Control as of Oct. 1
Government
Rebel
ISIS
Kurdish
Nawa
Suwayda
JORDAN
By Tim Wallace/The New York Times|Source: The Carter Center (areas of control)
Varied Rebel Groups Make Up the Opposition
Some 7,000 armed groups have formed during more than four years of civil war, according to the Carter Center. All groups are fighting against the Assad regime and the Islamic State, but different political ideologies and territorial divides have split the opposition into many factions. Here are some of the groups that make up the rebels.In the province of Aleppo, two groups are fighting government forces and the Islamic State. The more moderate Fatah Halab Operations Roomexcludes hard-line groups, while the Ansar al-Shariah Operations Room, formed as a response to Fatah Halab, works with the Nusra Front, an affiliate of Al Qaeda.In central Syria around Idlib, Latakia and Hama, the largest group is theArmy of Conquest, which has been a target of the Russian airstrikes. The group, also called Jaish al-Fatah, is a loose alliance of mostly Islamist factions, including the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate; Ahrar al-Sham, another large group; and more moderate rebel factions that have received covert arms support from the intelligence services of the United States and its allies.In the Damascus region, the Army of Islam, a group with financial backing from Saudi Arabia, has declared war on Russia. It is one of several armed groups that form the East Gouta Council.In the South, the Southern Front is a coalition of smaller armed groups that has coordinated with the United States. The coalition supports a secular government.
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