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Lower oil prices could drain Saudi FX reserves by $18B per month: report
Analysts are watching how the Chinese Yuan and the Saudi Riyal will perform against the US dollar in 2016. (File photo)
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The foreign exchange (FX) reserve drain on Saudi Arabia could accelerate to $18 billion per month if Brent crude oil prices average $30 per barrel, adding pressure on the kingdom’s currency, a report said.
Saudi Arabia has been forcing prices lower by increasing production into an oversupplied market so far and it also rushed to issue debt in its local market to fill a soaring budget gap, added Bank of America Merrill Lynch in its research report “Global Energy Weekly”.
Saudi Arabia has been forcing prices lower by increasing production into an oversupplied market so far and it also rushed to issue debt in its local market to fill a soaring budget gap, added Bank of America Merrill Lynch in its research report “Global Energy Weekly”.
"In fact, Saudi Arabia’s FX reserves are still high and point to an ample buffer for now, but they have been falling at a relatively fast rate.
However, should China allow for significantly faster FX depreciation than is currently priced in by markets, we believe oil prices could fall further. Naturally, the FX reserve drain on Saudi could accelerate to $18 billion per month if Brent crude oil prices average $30/bbl, sharply reducing the kingdom’s ability to retain its currency peg," the report said.
“We have previously argued that Saudi Arabia’s surging output is responsible for almost half of the 520 million barrel global petroleum inventory build in the last 7 quarters. Can the government maintain this strategy of flooding the oil market?” the report said.
“In our view, it is unlikely that Saudi leaders would want to exacerbate its ongoing reserve drain by pushing prices below $40 per barrel. After all, pressure will quickly build on the riyal’s 30 year peg to the USD if Brent crude oil prices keep falling. And frankly, it is a lot easier politically to implement a modest supply cut at first than allow for a full-blown currency devaluation. But a CNY (Chinese Yuan) meltdown could ultimately force Saudi’s hand.
“We see cases for both a soft and hard-landing in commodities. In short, a depeg of the Saudi riyal is our number one black-swan event for the global oil market in 2016, a highly unlikely but highly impactful risk. Surely, if Saudi opts to modestly cut supply to push Brent crude oil prices back above $50 per barrel over the next year, EM (emerging markets) growth could stabilize at these low levels and eventually recover,” the report said.
However, if Saudi cannot resist the gravitational forces created by a persistently strong dollar and depegs the Saudi riyal to follow Russia or Brazil, oil prices could collapse to $25 per barrel.
Weaker commodity prices would in turn add more downward pressure on EMs, the report said.
Thus, even if micro supply and demand dynamics are improving, the path for oil prices in 2016 will heavily depend on how the USD moves against the CNY and the Saudi Riyal, according to the report.
“In our view, it is unlikely that Saudi leaders would want to exacerbate its ongoing reserve drain by pushing prices below $40 per barrel. After all, pressure will quickly build on the riyal’s 30 year peg to the USD if Brent crude oil prices keep falling. And frankly, it is a lot easier politically to implement a modest supply cut at first than allow for a full-blown currency devaluation. But a CNY (Chinese Yuan) meltdown could ultimately force Saudi’s hand.
“We see cases for both a soft and hard-landing in commodities. In short, a depeg of the Saudi riyal is our number one black-swan event for the global oil market in 2016, a highly unlikely but highly impactful risk. Surely, if Saudi opts to modestly cut supply to push Brent crude oil prices back above $50 per barrel over the next year, EM (emerging markets) growth could stabilize at these low levels and eventually recover,” the report said.
However, if Saudi cannot resist the gravitational forces created by a persistently strong dollar and depegs the Saudi riyal to follow Russia or Brazil, oil prices could collapse to $25 per barrel.
Weaker commodity prices would in turn add more downward pressure on EMs, the report said.
Thus, even if micro supply and demand dynamics are improving, the path for oil prices in 2016 will heavily depend on how the USD moves against the CNY and the Saudi Riyal, according to the report.
New U.S. Ships For Saudi Unsuitable For Iran
WASHINGTON [MENL] -- Saudi Arabia's choice for an advanced U.S. warship was
not regarded as suitable for any conflict with Iran.
A leading U.S. defense analyst said Saudi Arabia's decision to procure
the Multi-Mission Surface Combatants of Lockheed Martin could not defend
against an Iranian missile strike. MMSC, based on the Littoral Combat Ship,
does not contain ballistic missile defense systems that could foil an
Iranian attack.
not regarded as suitable for any conflict with Iran.
A leading U.S. defense analyst said Saudi Arabia's decision to procure
the Multi-Mission Surface Combatants of Lockheed Martin could not defend
against an Iranian missile strike. MMSC, based on the Littoral Combat Ship,
does not contain ballistic missile defense systems that could foil an
Iranian attack.
Saudi Arabian court sentences Palestinian poet Ashraf Fayadh to death for apostasy
A court sentenced him to four years in prison and 800 lashes but after appeal another judge passed a death sentence
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Saudi Stocks Lead Mideast Advance as OPEC Pledges Oil Stability
(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabian stocks rose to the highest level in four weeks, tracking gains across the U.S. and Europe last week, after the country’s oil minister said OPEC and other crude producers are working to stabilize the market.
The kingdom’s Tadawul All Share Index climbed 2.1 percent to 7,179.17, leading advances across most Middle Eastern markets. Dubai’s DFM General Index increased a second day to the highest in more than a week after the United Arab Emirates said it would invest more than $80 billion to diversify its economy away from oil.
Brent crude, a benchmark for half the world’s oil, last week posted its first weekly advance since October. Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said last week the kingdom was working with producers to stabilize the market, and Matar al-Neyadi, the U.A.E.’s undersecretary of energy, said prices will improve next year. Economies across the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., rely on energy income to fund most government spending, which drives economic growth.
"Saudi and U.A.E. officials speaking in support of OPEC strategy is giving comfort to the market," said Ramzi Sidani, a fund manager at Shuaa Capital PSC, which is overweight on consumer and retail names in Saudi Arabia. "We’re seeing a big recovery in the U.S. and Saudi Arabia is following the tracks."
Riyal Peg
Last week a key currency indicator in Saudi Arabia signaled increasing bets that the country may reconsider the value of the riyal after 30 years pegged to the dollar. One-year forwards on the currency jumped on Thursday to their highest level since January 2003.
The peg has come under increasing pressure as oil’s slump weighs on the kingdom’s economy. Saudi Arabia may face a “critical" choice between adjusting its peg and cutting its oil production, Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists wrote in a Nov. 19 report. The forwards dropped the most in a month on Friday.
Global Rally
U.S. stocks capped their best weekly gain this year in a sign that markets are growing more comfortable with impending interest-rate increases. European stocks rose for a second day amid optimism that the European Central Bank will add to stimulus measures.
Dubai’s benchmark gauge gained 0.5 percent. The U.A.E. approved a 300 billion dirham ($81.7 billion) investment plan to boost its knowledge economy spanning sectors such as health, transportation and education.
The expenditure is part of the nation’s plan to diversify its economy away from crude, which accounts for about 30 percent of its gross domestic product. The U.A.E. is home to almost 6 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves. While Brent crude closed 1.1 percent higher on Friday at $44.66 a barrel, its down 44 percent in the past 12 months.
“This 300 billion-dirham plan they announced will affect the whole country positively, not just Dubai," and it’ll help move the nation’s economy away from oil, said Muhammad Shabbir, who manages about $550 million as the head of regional equities at Rasmala Investment Bank Ltd. “There’s some positive momentum from international equity markets on Friday.”
Dana Gas Ruling
Abu Dhabi’s ADX General Index slipped 0.2 percent as Emirates Telecommunications Group Co., known as Etisalat, dropped 1.2 percent. The volume of shares traded in the emirate continues to be depressed. About 68 million shares changed hands, or about half the 12-month daily average.
Energy explorer Dana Gas PJSC made up about a third of that volume, and was the most-traded stock. A court ruled the Kurdish government must pay the company and partners $100 million in two weeks. Dana Gas’ shares jumped 4.9 percent to 0.43 dirhams.
Oman’s MSM 30 Index fell 0.2 percent, declining for the 13th day, the longest losing streak since 2012. Standard and Poor’s reduced the country’s credit rating on Friday, citing the drop in oil prices as it cut expectations for Oman’s gross- domestic product and trade deficit.
Gauges in Kuwait and Bahrain rose 0.5 percent, each. Qatar’s QE Index fell 0.2 percent. Egyptian stocks added 0.6 percent, led by a 1.2 percent increase in the shares of Commercial International Bank Egypt SAE, the nation’s biggest- listed lender.
Citadel Capital SAE, known as Qalaa Holdings, closed the sale of ASEX Minya Cement and ASEX Ready Mix for about 1 billion Egyptian pounds ($127.7 million). Qalaa retreated 0.6 percent.
Frutarom Record
Israel’s TA-25 Index gained 0.6 percent, led by Bank Hapoalim, as of 2:43 p.m. in Tel Aviv. Frutarom Industries Ltd. added 2.6 percent, extending the best performance on the gauge this year and trading at the highest on record for a second day.
The country’s parliament approved a two-year budget on Thursday, allowing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu bandwidth to advance some of his cornerstone economic issues, including the policy governing Israel’s natural gas industry. The TA Oil & Gas Index rose 1.4 percent, led by Delek Drilling LP and Avner Oil Exploration LLP.
Space Communication Ltd. plunged 34 percent, the most since it listed in 2005 after the company said it lost contact with one of its satellites, for still unknown reasons. The satellite is insured for $158 million, the company said.
Belgium to decide on extending Brussels lockdown
State of emergency continues in Belgian capital as police hunt one of the men believed to be behind the Paris attacks.
For the second day on Sunday, shops in the Belgian capital are closed, the city's metro system has been shut down, and residents have been urged to say at home in the face of a "serious and imminent threat".
Warnings on movement remained in place as authorities continued their efforts to track down one of the men believed to be involved in the attack on the French capital last week that killed 130 people.
Salah Abdesalam, a Belgian national, is suspected to be hiding in the Brussels area and carrying what might be an explosive device.
Charles Michel, Belgium's prime minister, moved to increase the state of alert in Brussels to the highest level early on Saturday in response to the threat.
Metro services and major events have since been suspended as hundreds of police officers and soldiers fanned out across the city.
Residents have been asked to stay indoors and avoid crowded areas amid the alert, which is in force only in Brussels.
Emergency phone lines have been set up to report suspicious activity, as well as sightings of Abdesalam.
Michel is expected to hold a press conference on Sunday evening local time to announce whether the emergency measures will remain in place.
Belgium has been at the forefront of efforts to track down those involved in helping execute the November 13 attacks in Paris, which targeted a concert hall, football stadium, cafe and shopping mall.
On Thursday, the country's security services launched raids in the Molenbeek and Jette neighbourhoods of Brussels and made further arrests on Saturday.
The attacks were blamed on the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group, and several of the attackers are believed to have received training in Syria.
The apparent ringleader, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, was a Belgian national who fought with ISIL and is suspected of helping to inspire or direct previous attacks targeting France.
In a related development, police in Turkey said they had arrested a Belgian of Moroccan origin in connection with the Paris attacks in the resort of Antalya, the site of this week's G20 summit, along with two other suspects.
Ahmet Dahmani, 26, is accused of helping to scout the Paris attacks and then preparing to illegally cross the Turkish-Syrian border to rejoin ISIL after arriving in Turkey from Amsterdam on his Belgian passport.
Since the start of October, ISIL has launched a number of attacks against targets outside the territory it primarily operates in, including in France, Lebanon, and Turkey.
The group has also claimed credit for bringing down on October 31 a Russian airliner in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula by smuggling a bomb on board.
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| Many in Brussels continued to go outside despite the threats [Virginia Mayo/AP] |
Source: Al Jazeera
La "reine" Merkel, plus que jamais incontournable en Europe
BRUXELLES (AFP)
Dix ans après son entrée en fonction, la chancelière allemande Angela Merkel, reste la porte-drapeau incontestée de l'Europe, confrontée à de multiples crises, et ce malgré une popularité en baisse dans son pays, selon les analystes.
Au nom des valeurs "morales" de l'UE, elle a décidé cet été d'accueillir généreusement des réfugiés en Allemagne. Auparavant, elle avait aidé à maintenir la cohésion au sein de la zone euro au plus fort de la crise grecque et organisé une réponse européenne au conflit ukrainien.
La suprématie économique de l'Allemagne, combinée à la relative faiblesse des ses collègues européen, font d'elle la "tsarine de l'Europe", et ce, même si des Grecs ont par le passé brûlé son effigie et les pays de l'Est la rendent responsable de l'afflux des migrants.
De fait sa popularité vacille dans son pays au moment où l'UE a besoin de leadership.
"Comme l'UE s'est montrée incapable d'anticiper les crises, c'est devenu du ressort de Merkel de prévenir l'implosion de l'Union", analyse Judy Dempsey, membre du think-tank Carnegie Europe, auteure d'un essai sur la chancelière allemande. "C'est un boulot peu enviable, plein de risque", écrit-elle.
Preuve de son influence, Merkel a volé la deuxième place au président Barack Obama, arrivant ainsi juste derrière Vladimir Poutine, dans le dernier classement des personnalités du magazine Forbes. L'influent hebdomadaire The Economist vient de la qualifier d'"Indispensable Européenne" à sa une.
"Ces dernières années, elle a joué un rôle déterminant dans la résolution des crises et des situations difficiles", explique Janis Emmanouilidis, du Centre de politique européenne (EPC).
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© AFP/Archives
La chancelière Angela Merkel prête serment devant Parlement, le 22 novembre 2005 à Berlin
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C'est pourtant dans la discrétion que cette femme, originaire d'ex-RDA, avait commencé à diriger l'Allemagne en 2005, rétablissant progressivement les relations avec Washington après que Berlin, avec Paris, se soit opposée à l'invasion américaine de l'Irak en 2003.
Docteur en physique, Merkel, encline à une approche scientifique pour résoudre les problèmes, s'est d'abord montré hésitante sur la crise des dettes souveraines dans la zone euro.
Et la ligne dure représentée par l'Allemagne, prônant l'austérité dans des pays dévastés par la crise, a contribué à faire d'elle un objet de haine, particulièrement en Grèce où la mémoire de l'occupation nazie reste vive.
Mais c'est elle qui a tranché cet été pour que la Grèce reste dans la zone euro.
- 'Impérialisme moral' -
Concernant l'Ukraine, alors que le reste de l'Europe était tenu à l'écart, c'est encore Merkel, qui, avec le président français François Hollande, s'est rendue à Minsk pour négocier un cessez-le-feu en février cette année.
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© AFP/Archives
La chancelière Angela Merkel et le président François Hollande à Minsk pour les négociations de paix en Ukraine, le 11 février 2015
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La chancelière allemande serait aussi le seul dirigeant européen que le président Poutine respecterait.
La crise migratoire lui a donné une nouvelle occasion d'affirmer son leadership européen: face à l'afflux de réfugiés et alors que nombre de dirigeants européens s'inquiétaient de la montée en puissance des partis populistes, Mme Merkel a stupéfait tout le monde en ouvrant grand les portes de l'Allemagne aux réfugiés syriens.
Mais cette annonce a quelque peu ébranlé sa position en Europe. Ainsi, les nations d'Europe centrale et orientale l'ont accusé d'encourager les migrants à les submerger pour se rendre en Allemagne. Le Premier ministre hongrois, Viktor Orban, est même allé jusqu'à rejeter "l'impérialisme moral" de Merkel.
Et surtout, la dirigeante allemande, habituée à survoler les sondages, a tout à coup vu sa cote de popularité baisser, ses compatriotes craignant l'arrivée d'un million de réfugiés chez eux cette année.
"Elle est sous pression en Allemagne comme elle ne l'a jamais été jusqu'ici. Si elle doit faire face à d'autres problèmes, cela provoquerait une grande incertitude qui aurait des effets négatifs en Europe", relève M. Emmanouilidis.
Sa décision soudaine sur les réfugiés rappelle une autre volte-face de Merkel en 2011 après la catastrophe nucléaire de Fukushima (Japon) qui l'a conduit à annoncer l'abandon progressif de l'énergie atomique en Allemagne. Un revirement qui a eu un impact majeur sur sa politique énergétique et industrielle.
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© AFP/Archives
Un militant du parti populiste de droite "Alternative pour l'Allemagne" brandit une un portrait d'Angela Merkel lors d'une manifestation contre la politique d'asile du pays à Berlin, le 7 novembre 2015
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Pour Mme Dempsey, son annonce sur les migrants était une "erreur de jugement extraordinaire". Et d'ajouter: "Le coeur, l'émotion, l'humanité et les valeurs morales sont extrêmement importants, mais elle n'a rien prévu sur la stratégie à suivre pour les jours d'après, et maintenant on essaye de recoller les morceaux"...
Mais même si elle est plus contestée qu'avant, Merkel reste "la reine de d'Europe", un de ses surnoms, d'autant plus que l'influence du tandem franco-allemand décline dans le sillage de la faible popularité de François Hollande, s'accordent à dire les analystes.
Et surtout, elle est à la tête de la première économie européenne, souligne M. Emmanouilidis pour qui "rien d'important en Europe ne peut avoir lieu sans l'accord de l'Allemagne - Peu importe qui dirige à Berlin, il ou elle aura le rôle de leader en Europe".
Vu de Russie. Pour la paix en Syrie, Bachar El-Assad doit partir
Bachar El-Assad et Vladimir Poutine lors d’une rencontre à Moscou, le 20 octobre 2015. ALEXEY DRUZHININ / RIA NOVOSTI / AFP
Le président syrien doit se retirer pour permettre la création d’une coalition nationale contre l’EI et ouvrir la voie à des élections avec participation de toutes les forces politiques du pays, écrit cet historien russe.
Le cauchemar de Paris a montré au monde deux choses. Premièrement, ce mouvement qui s’attaque à l’humanité est diabolique – inutile d’espérer négocier avec lui ni même obtenir une trêve. L’organisation Etat islamique (EI) ne peut qu’être anéantie et doit l’être. Deuxièmement, devant cette menace commune, les Etats doivent écouter la voix de la raison et oublier leurs différends et leurs réticences. Il faut, par exemple, comprendre que les Américains n’enverront jamais de kamikazes dans le métro de Moscou, tandis que ces monstres islamistes le feront volontiers.
Tous les derniers coups portés par l’EI – à Bagdad, à Beyrouth, à Paris, dans le ciel du Sinaï – le sont sous la même bannière : “Vengeance pour la Syrie !” Les bombardements français ont infligé des dommages minimes aux djihadistes, mais qu’à cela ne tienne ! Il leur faut montrer à tous ceux qui oseraient s’en prendre au califat que le châtiment sera terrible. Quant à la Russie, ces monstres la haïssent tout particulièrement : alors qu’ils avaient enfin réalisé leur vieux rêve de califat, les Russes sont venus les frapper dans le dos.
Qui dirige Daech ?
Voilà donc la Syrie détruite et inondée de sang. Elle est aujourd’hui au cœur de tout, le théâtre de tous les excès de l’EI. On comprend pourquoi la diplomatie internationale est ainsi focalisée sur la question syrienne. Qui irait contredire l’idée que tous ceux qui veulent éliminer les djihadistes de la scène politique doivent aujourd’hui unir leurs forces ? Alors où est le problème ? Pourquoi a-t-on l’impression que l’actuel projet de résolution du conflit syrien risque de suivre le même chemin que le “plan de paix de Kofi Annan” [de mars 2012], aujourd’hui oublié, et sur lequel Moscou avait à l’époque fondé tant d’espoirs ? Une seule réponse : toutes les solutions achoppent sur Bachar El-Assad.
La position officielle russe est la suivante : nous ne sommes pas cramponnés à Assad, nous voulons seulement que le peuple syrien puisse choisir son président lors d’élections libres. En attendant, Assad est un président légitimement élu. L’argument est fallacieux et peu convaincant. Premièrement, la légitimité d’Assad est pour le moins controversée : tout le monde sait qu’il n’a pu prendre les rênes du pays que parce qu’il était le fils de l’ancien président, lui-même arrivé au pouvoir à la faveur d’un coup d’Etat.
Deuxièmement, où pourraient se dérouler ces élections ? Dans les zones contrôlées par le pouvoir ? Cela ne représente pas plus du quart du territoire syrien. Alors de quelles élections parle-t-on ? Ou bien pense-t-on qu’en six mois l’armée régulière aura libéré la Syrie et vaincu tous ses ennemis, l’EI comme le Front Al-Nosra [affilié à Al-Qaida], mais aussi [le groupe armé salafiste] Ahrar Al-Sham et l’Armée syrienne libre ? Difficile à imaginer.
L’Etat islamique est-il vraiment un Etat ?
En quatre ans, l’armée régulière, équipée d’armes russes sophistiquées, n’a pas pu mater ceux qu’Assad appelle les bandes de terroristes, de criminels et de mercenaires, qui ne disposent pourtant que d’armes légères. Les djihadistes ont fait leur apparition en Syrie il y a à peine deux ans. L’armée d’Assad se battait les deux années précédentes contre l’Armée syrienne libre, composée de déserteurs qui avaient trouvé refuge en Turquie et de groupes disparates issus de l’opposition laïque et islamiste modérée. Ces groupes, sans commandement unique et sans armes lourdes, ont non seulement réussi à tenir l’armée en respect, mais ont même pris le contrôle de plusieurs villes. Quand l’EI est entré en Syrie, on se battait déjà dans la banlieue de Damas et dans le centre d’Alep.
Conclusion : il y a quelque chose qui cloche avec l’armée régulière. Inutile d’escompter que l’appui aérien russe entraîne une métamorphose des troupes syriennes au sol qui libéreraient la Syrie comme par magie. En admettant même que ce miracle ait lieu et que toute la Syrie se retrouve à nouveau sous le pouvoir du régime d’Assad, qui irait voter ? Plusieurs millions de Syriens se sont réfugiés en Turquie, au Liban, en Jordanie et maintenant en Europe – sont-ils des citoyens de seconde zone ? Et comment réunir les conditions nécessaires à la tenue d’élections dans un pays à moitié détruit ou dans des camps de réfugiés ?
Des élections en l’état ? Une farce
Poursuivons. Qui seraient les candidats ? Assad n’a pas été écarté, il serait donc candidat et assuré de remporter au moins 90 % des suffrages partout où son pouvoir est toujours reconnu. C’est le seul résultat que pourraient assurer les baasistes, tenants d’un régime totalitaire et policier. Mais surtout comment imaginer que ceux que l’on voudrait associer à un “règlement politique”, à savoir l’opposition modérée, ceux qui se sont soulevés contre Assad en 2011, pourraient accepter de participer à une telle farce ?
Enfin, à supposer qu’une fois encore un miracle ait lieu et que les ministres des Affaires étrangères des puissances internationales et la diaspora syrienne parviennent à un accord dans un quelconque hôtel européen, comment cela serait-il perçu par ceux qui se battent l’arme au poing en Syrie (je parle évidemment de l’opposition, des insurgés) ? Ces gens combattent depuis quatre ans, ils ont fait couler le sang, vu tomber leurs camarades, et voilà qu’Assad leur ordonnerait de déposer les armes, de disparaître ou de se repentir pour vivre encore une fois sous ce même régime…
La solution : protéger les alaouites de représailles
Alors que faire ? Il faut assurer la sécurité des territoires contrôlés actuellement par l’Etat syrien. Eriger un mur de fer autour Damas et Lattaquié et protéger les alaouites de représailles sanglantes. Pour Vladimir Poutine, c’est là une question d’honneur, ce sera son mérite pour la postérité. En échange de quoi, Assad devra désigner un successeur (même de son entourage alaouite) et se retirer officiellement pour le salut de sa nation exsangue.
On me rétorquera que cela entérinera la partition de la Syrie. Mais pas du tout. Au contraire, ce serait l’unique chance d’opposer à l’EI, avec l’opposition modérée, débarrassée d’Assad, un front uni. Une coalition allant des baasistes au groupe Ahrar Al-Cham pourrait être créée. A plus long terme, un nouveau système politique serait bâti, sur le modèle multiconfessionnel libanais par exemple. Utopique, me direz-vous ? Pas plus que la solution préparée actuellement (probablement sans même y croire) par les ministres des grandes puissances.
Das Ende der Demokratie
Julian Assange (per Video) im Gespräch mit Angela Richter und Srećko Horvat
Veranstaltung auf Deutsch und Englisch mit Simultanübersetzung
Kein anderes Wort diente nach Ende des Kalten Krieges so häufig zur Selbstbeschreibung unserer westlichen Gesellschaft, wie Demokratie. Realität heute ist: Konzerne agieren wie Staaten, Kriege - vor allem im geographischen Süden - werden im Namen der Freiheit geführt und unsere digitalen Aktivitäten in aller Totalität aufgezeichnet.
Transparenz und die Freilegung geheimer Datenströme. Das war das Leitmotiv, mit dem die Plattform Wikileaks und die sie mit Informationen fütternden Whistleblower ab 2006 antraten. Ein Versuch, unter technischen Bedingungen mit Demokratie Ernst zu machen; eine Art Einlösung der mit der Entstehung des Internets gehegten emanzipativen Utopien. Die Enthüllungsseite ist bis heute online. Ihr Sprecher/Gründer ist Julian Assange. Von den einen als Cypherpunk und Held gefeiert, ist er von den Regierungen und Geheimdiensten, die vermeintlich "Schaden" durch Wikileaks nahmen, als High-Tech-Terrorist gebrandmarkt und öffentlichen Morddrohungen ausgesetzt.
Mit schwedischem Haftbefehl - wegen sexueller Nötigung - in Europa gesucht, sitzt Assange aktuell in der ecuadorianischen Botschaft in London fest. Am 9. Dezember wird er von dort live per Video in die Volksbühne geschaltet. Im Gespräch mit der Regisseurin Angela Richter und dem kroatischen Philosophen Srećko Horvat spricht er über TTIP (und die erwartbaren Folgen des Abkommens) sowie über die Geopolitik der Flüchtlingsströme. Und auch darüber, wie ein Nachdenken über die Kriminalgeschichte der Demokratie helfen kann, den Ausblick auf ein alternatives Europa zu öffnen.
Das Gespräch markiert den dritten Teil der Europa-Reihe in der Volksbühne - nach einem Podium und Diskussionen u.a. mit Yanis Varoufakis und Slavoj Žižek.
Tickets kosten 12,- Euro bzw. 8,- Euro (ermäßigt).
Kein anderes Wort diente nach Ende des Kalten Krieges so häufig zur Selbstbeschreibung unserer westlichen Gesellschaft, wie Demokratie. Realität heute ist: Konzerne agieren wie Staaten, Kriege - vor allem im geographischen Süden - werden im Namen der Freiheit geführt und unsere digitalen Aktivitäten in aller Totalität aufgezeichnet.
Transparenz und die Freilegung geheimer Datenströme. Das war das Leitmotiv, mit dem die Plattform Wikileaks und die sie mit Informationen fütternden Whistleblower ab 2006 antraten. Ein Versuch, unter technischen Bedingungen mit Demokratie Ernst zu machen; eine Art Einlösung der mit der Entstehung des Internets gehegten emanzipativen Utopien. Die Enthüllungsseite ist bis heute online. Ihr Sprecher/Gründer ist Julian Assange. Von den einen als Cypherpunk und Held gefeiert, ist er von den Regierungen und Geheimdiensten, die vermeintlich "Schaden" durch Wikileaks nahmen, als High-Tech-Terrorist gebrandmarkt und öffentlichen Morddrohungen ausgesetzt.
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Das Gespräch markiert den dritten Teil der Europa-Reihe in der Volksbühne - nach einem Podium und Diskussionen u.a. mit Yanis Varoufakis und Slavoj Žižek.
Tickets kosten 12,- Euro bzw. 8,- Euro (ermäßigt).
THE EXTINCTION OF THE GRAYZONE
THE ENDANGERED GRAYZONE
The grayzone is critically endangered, rather on the brink of extinction. Its endangerment began with the blessed operations of September 11th, as these operations manifested two camps before the world for mankind to choose between, a camp of Islam – without the body of Khilāfah to represent it at the time – and a camp of kufr – the crusader coalition. Or as Shaykh Usāmah Ibn Lādin (rahimahullāh) said, “The world today is divided into two camps. Bush spoke the truth when he said, ‘Either you are with us or you are with the terrorists.’ Meaning, either you are with the crusade or you are with Islam” [Interview – 4 Sha’bān 1422H]. [ It is strange how ‘Azzām al-Amrīkī in some of his letters criticized the Islamic State’s justification for targeting the hostile Catholics of Iraq in 2010. He decried that its operation against the Catholics was based upon Bush’s division of the world, when this is exactly how Shaykh Usāmah (rahimahullāh) viewed the world!]
The operations quickly exposed the different deviant “Islamic” movements, the palace “scholars,” and the deviant du’āt, not to mention the apostate tawāghīt [The tawāghīt had always been open apostates in the camp of kufr, but due to the support they received from the palace “scholars” and the deviant movements (the Sufis, the Surūriyyah, the Ikhwān, etc.), many of the ignorant did not understand the blatant apostasy of these rulers. Because of this confusion, the tawāghīt were only “gray” in the sight of the ignorant. Only in this sense did the events of September 11th drive the tawāghīt out of the grayzone.] , as all of them rushed to serve the crusaders led by Bush in the war against Islam. And so, the grayzone began to wither…
But the fiery zeal of the broken Muslim Ummah began to cool by the hazy events known as “the Arab Spring” as well as the lack of a body representing Islam (the Khilāfah) then. The Muslims saw the same aforementioned movements, “scholars,” callers, sects, and even the apostate tawāghīt get involved in “supporting” the cause of the oppressed Muslims in Shām. And so confusion spread, and the withering of the grayzone was slowed or almost halted. Once again, the heretical call to the gates of Hellfire – the religions of the tawāghīt – was answered by many of the ignorant.
Then came the announcement of the Islamic State’s expansion to Shām followed by the subsequent announcement of the Khilāfah… bringing the grayzone to the brink of permanent extinction… by reviving the great body of Islam and so no Muslim had any excuse to be independent of this entity embodying them and waging war on their behalf in the face of kufr.
Now, a stance of “neutrality” or “independence” would doom him [Note: After September 11th, the two opposing camps were the divided Ummah versus the crusaders. Now – according to the crusaders themselves – it is the Islamic State versus the crusaders. Accordingly, the grayzone has different implications for both times. In the past, it consisted of the hypocrites, deviant innovators, and abandoners of jihād. After the Khilāfah and the subsequent crusade, the grayzone also encompasses “independent” and “neutral” Islamic parties that refuse to join the Khilāfah, as these parties claim to be independent of both opposing camps.] , as it entailed major sin, which would cause him to commit greater sins until he could commit kufr for the sake of his sinful interests, as the scholars stated, “The reward for sin is another sin,” and “Sins are the gateway to kufr” [Al-Jawāb al-Kāfī – Ibnul-Qayyim].[What the scholars mean is that sins – including bid’ah – will get a person into committing further sins. Each time he commits a sin, Allah will punish him with greater sins. Eventually, Allah could punish him with kufr, like the case of someone who knows that the implementation of the Sharī’ah will prevent him from pursuing his addiction to sin and thus joins the ranks of those who wage war against it, so he can preserve a social and political condition suitable for his sins. Or the case of those whose attachment to innovation and hizbiyyah is so deep that he feels he must wage war against the Khilāfah and so he cooperates with the murtaddīn against it.]
The destruction of the grayzone is comparable to the division resulting from the Islamic message when it was first conveyed by the Messenger (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam). As the angels said when they appeared before the Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) while he was sleeping, “Muhammad is a divider” and “Muhammad divided the people” [Sahīh alBukhārī]. For this reason, the mushrikīn would warn the Arabs against the Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) by saying, “You have come to our lands. The matter of this man amongst us has grown severe. He has divided our jamā’ah (community) and scattered our strength. His words are like that of a sorcerer. He divides between a man and his father, a man and his brother, a man and his wife. We fear for you and your people what he has brought upon us. So do not speak to him nor listen to a word from him” [Ibn Hishām]. They would also say, “He divides between a man and his religion … a man and his clan” [Ibn Hishām]and “He severed the bonds between us” [Ibn Hishām].
Rasūlullāh (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) came with al-Furqān (the Qur’ān, the divider between truth and falsehood) by which he divided his people into two opposing parties – the Muslims versus the mushrikīn – who then fought each other on the Day of al-Furqān (the Battle of Badr), where Rasūlullāh (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) slaughtered his mushrik adversaries by his sword.
And when a grayzone formed and a “masjid” was established for it, Allah (ta’ālā) revealed to His Messenger (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) al-Fādihah (the Exposer, Sūrat at-Tawbah) by which the grayish were exposed as well as their harmful “masjid.” Rasūlullāh (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) went on to demolish this “masjid”… again ridding the Ummah of the destructive gray movement, as the grayzone was the hideout of the hypocrites, {Indeed, the hypocrites [think to] deceive Allah, but He is deceiving them. And when they stand for prayer, they stand lazily, showing [themselves to] the people and not remembering Allah except a little, wavering between them, [belonging] neither to the believers nor to the disbelievers. And whoever Allah leaves astray – never will you find for him a way} [At-Tawbah: 142-143].
And a sword was also revealed to deal with the grayish hypocrites if they openly exposed their dark hypocrisy. {O Prophet, fight against the disbelievers and the hypocrites and be harsh upon them. And their refuge is Hell, and wretched is the destination} [At-Tawbah: 73]. {If the hypocrites and those in whose hearts is disease and those who spread rumors in alMadīnah do not cease, We will surely incite you against them; then they will not remain your neighbors therein except for a little. They are accursed; wherever they are found, they are to be seized and massacred completely. This is the established way of Allah with those who passed on before; and you will not find in the way of Allah any change} [Al-Ahzāb: 60-62].
And so, the hypocrites buried their heads in the sand, fearful of being exposed… They remained so until the wars of apostasy, when most of the Arabs apostatized from Islam. Then the hypocrites came out and rushed to join the open camp of falsehood, until the sword against apostasy – Abū Bakr as-Siddīq (radiyallāhu ‘anh) – took his famous stance and forced them back into the religion by the edge of his blade. Again, the hypocrites concealed themselves until other f itan struck the Ummah, including the murders of al-Fārūq ‘Umar, ‘Uthmān, and ‘Alī (radiyallāhu ‘anhum)… fitan that gave birth to deviant sects and parties, which in turn provided cover for the hypocrites desperately seeking another grayzone to operate from.
And so, the hypocrites began to speak out brazenly, as Hudhayfah (radiyallāhu ‘anh) said, “Indeed, the hypocrites today are worse than those at the time of Rasūlullāh (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam); those ones would hide their hypocrisy, as for today, then they openly declare it” [Al-Bukhārī]. And just as the Islamic message carried by the Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) split the former jāhiliyyah into two opposing camps, the Islamic State – by its very expansion to Shām – split the different factions in Shām including those with jāhilī and ‘ummī (blind) goals [ Jāhilī and ‘ummī goals are not necessarily kufr, as they include fighting for tribalism, money, hizbiyyah, bid’ah, etc. As for democracy and secularism, then these goals are jāhilī as well as kufrī.].The former War Minister Abū Hamzah al-Muhājir (rahimahullāh) was asked, “Some people accuse you of being the cause for the Sahwah mission, how correct is this claim?” He replied:
“We have previously asserted that the true cause behind the Sahwah mission was the establishment of the Islamic State. This is what began to be apparent these days, for after the announcement of the State, the Islamic mission conflicted with the nationalist mission adopted by almost all colors of the spectrum in Iraq, and this is what all the different jabhāt ad-dirār (harmful fronts) which were announced and formed have declared openly and repeatedly. It is not strange for all these different assemblies to form after the announcement of the Islamic State for they were truly formed only to wage war against it, secretly and openly.”
“Indeed, the rancor and envy of the carriers of Āl Salūl’s banner [the Surūriyyah] burned after losing their piece of the cake, after their hope for nationalist rule was demolished, and after they realized we would spill our blood and dismember our corpses cheaply so as to not allow the fruit of jihād to go to waste and so Iraq would not once again be ruled by something besides the Sharī’ah of ar-Rahmān. And because the reality of their armies [the Surūrī factions] is a lie especially after the sincere ones in their ranks joined us, their only option was to stand with the occupation against the Islamic State because the nationalist mission, which they argued for, gathered support for, and unified for, is the same mission desired by the occupation. The only condition is to be its agents, and this they had offered before for nothing in return from the occupation except a few dirhams and some security, which the occupation and its allies began to deprive them of” [The First Interview].
The different factions in Shām – as occurred in Iraq – began to split into two camps: the Islamic State versus the Sahwah backed by the crusaders, apostate regimes, and deviant movements… and those who tried to preserve the grayzone for different partisan interests found the grayzone withering rapidly before them, as their sincere soldiers abandoned them to join the Islamic State while their sick-hearted soldiers rushed to join the Sahwah factions.
This division found its way quickly into different lands, as sincere mujāhidīn saw their former leaders fearful of losing power and influence rushing to futilely resuscitate the grayzone, even if it necessitated supporting the interests of the secularist, nationalist, and heretical parties waging war against the Islamic State on behalf of the crusaders and Arab apostate regimes. The grayzone – for these leaders – was a place to continue existing as independent parties and thereby preserve their own power. The Khilāfah’s establishment finally pushed the sincere mujāhidīn to abandon their former leaderships, who were too busy burying themselves alive in the garbage dump of history.
This revival of the Khilāfah gave each individual Muslim a concrete and tangible entity to satisfy his natural desire for belonging to something greater. The satisfaction of this desire brought life back to the zeal latent in Muslims’ hearts and when this entity embodying them was threatened by the crusaders, attacks were immediately carried out by the zealous Muslims in different kāfir lands in a way uniquely different to all attacks before. For years, different jihād organizations had called for individual attacks to be carried out against the crusader homelands, but their calls were met with minimal response. After the revival of the Khilāfah, numerous attacks were carried out in a period of months. This is something that the crusaders should deeply reflect over…
Europe was struck by attacks that killed multitudes more of kuffār than those killed in the recent Paris attacks. The 2004 Madrid operation and the 2005 London operation together killed more than 200 crusaders and injured more than 2000. Europe also witnessed an attack against “free speech” when a mujāhid assassinated Theo Van Gogh for mocking Allah (ta’ālā), His verses, His religion, and His Messenger (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam). So why was the reaction to the recent attacks much greater than that of any previous attack? It is the international atmosphere of terror generated by the presence of the Islamic Khilāfah… It is the lively words contained in the Khilāfah’s call. When its spokesman Shaykh Abū Muhammad al-‘Adnānī ash-Shāmī (hafidhahullāh) made his call to Muslims everywhere, ordering them to carry out attacks against the crusaders wherever they may be found, his call was answered immediately, with different individual operations executed within hours…
And of those who answered the call recently was the brave mujāhid Abū Basīr al-Ifrīqī (Amedy Coulibaly – rahimahullāh). It was the address“Indeed Your Lord Is Ever Watchful” that moved him most. He had given his bay’ah to the Khilāfah beforehand – immediately upon its announcement – and sat in wait for instructions from its leadership, while never traveling to Iraq nor Shām. It was the living and breathing entity of Islam, which he pledged allegiance to, that inspired his soul. He met with the Muslims and mujāhidīn in France, calling them to give bay’ah and defend the Khilāfah, while refuting the doubts spread against it. He provided others – including the two mujāhid brothers, Cherif and Said Kouachi (rahimahumallāh) – with money and weapons so as to call to jihād under the banner of the Khilāfah.
And thus, the time had come for another event – magnified by the presence of the Khilāfah on the global stage – to further bring division to the world and destroy the grayzone everywhere.
THE OBLIGATION OF KILLING THOSE WHO MOCK THE MESSENGER
One of the first matters renounced by the hypocrites abandoning the grayzone and fleeing to the camp of apostasy and kufr after the operations in Paris is the clear-cut obligation to kill those who mock the Messenger (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam). There is no khilāf (difference) amongst the Salaf that if a dhimmī kāfir mocks the Messenger (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam), his covenant is thereby nullified and he must be killed. So how much more certain is the obligation to kill a covenant-less kāfir mocking the Messenger (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) from dārul-harb!
Shaykhul-Islām Ibn Taymiyyah (rahimahullāh) said, “The evidences for the nullification of the dhimmī’s covenant if he curses Allah, His book, His religion, or His Messenger, and the obligation to kill him and kill the Muslim who does the same are: the Qur’ān, the Sunnah, the ijmā’ (consensus) of the Sahābah and the Tābi’īn, and analytical deduction”[As-Sārim alMaslūl].
Amongst the evidences for this ruling is the statement of Allah (ta’ālā),{And if they break their oaths after their treaty and defame your religion, then fight the leaders of disbelief, for indeed, there are no oaths [sacred] to them; [fight them that] they might cease} [At-Tawbah: 12].
Numerous ahādīth also prove this ruling, including the story of the Jewish tāghūt Ka’b Ibn al-Ashraf. The Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) said,“Who will deal with Ka’b Ibn al-Ashraf for he has abused Allah and His Messenger?” Muhammad Ibn Maslamah (radiyallāhu ‘anh) said, “I will deal with him, O Rasūlullāh. Would you like that I kill him?” He replied, “Yes” [Al-Bukhārī and Muslim].
The Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) also dispatched ‘Abdullāh Ibn ‘Atīk (radiyallāhu ‘anh) with a group of al-Ansār to kill the Jew Abū Rāfi’ because he had abused the Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam). Ibn ‘Atīk successfully executed the operation [Al-Bukhārī].
During the conquest of Makkah, he (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) granted security to whoever entered al-Masjid al-Harām [Hasan: Abū Dāwūd], but ordered that Ibn Khatal be killed even though he was found holding on to the curtains of the Ka’bah [Al-Bukhārī and Muslim], because of his cursing of the Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) [Ibn Hishām].
‘Alī Ibn Abī Tālib (radiyallāhu ‘anh) reported that a Jewess would curse the Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) and disparage him. So a man choked her until she died. The Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) judged her blood had been spilled lawfully [Sahīh: Abū Dāwūd].
Ibn ‘Abbās also reported that a blind man had a slave girl whom he had two children from. She would curse the Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) and not stop when he ordered her to, so he killed her with a short sword by placing its tip on her belly then placing his weight upon the sword. The Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) judged her blood had been spilled lawfully [Sahīh: Abū Dāwūd].
The evidences for this issue are so abundant and clear, and yet some apostates, who abandoned the grayzone, claimed that the operations in Paris contradicted the teachings of Islam! They then gathered the masses in rallies under the banner “Je Suis Charlie,” leading them on towards the gates of Hellfire designated for the murtaddīn…
WHERE ARE THE FOLLOWERS OF AS-SIDDĪQ TO CONFRONT THIS APOSTASY?
Allah (ta’ālā) said, {And it has come down to you in the Book that if you hear the verses of Allah denied [by the kāfirīn] and ridiculed, do not sit with them until they enter into another conversation. Indeed, you would then be like them. Indeed Allah will gather the hypocrites and disbelievers in Hell all together} [An-Nisā’: 140].
Shaykh Sulaymān Āl ash-Shaykh (rahimahullāh) said, “The meaning of the āyah is apparent. It means that if a man hears the verses of Allah being denied and mocked and sits with the kāfir mockers without being coerced, without forbidding them, and without getting up and leaving until they change the subject, then he is a kāfir like them even if he does not do the same as them, because his remaining with them entails approval of kufr. And approval of kufr is kufr” [Ad-Durar as-Saniyyah].
If merely sitting silently with the kuffār during a gathering of kufr is kufr, how much more so is it to rally on behalf of a newspaper mocking the Messenger (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam)? Or give verdicts in defense of the newspaper, against the mujāhidīn who killed those who mocked the Messenger (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam)? Or raise banners and slogans with the words “Je Suis Charlie” on them? There is no doubt that such deeds are apostasy, that those who publicly call to such deeds in the name of Islam and scholarship are from the du’āt (callers) to apostasy, and that there is great reward awaiting the Muslim in the Hereafter if he kills these apostate imāms…
{Indeed, those who reverted back to disbelief after guidance had become clear to them – Shaytān enticed them and prolonged hope for them. That is because they said to those who disliked what Allah sent down, “We will obey you in part of the matter.” And Allah knows what they conceal. Then how [will it be] when the angels take them in death, striking their faces and their backs? That is because they followed what angered Allah and disliked [what earns] His pleasure, so He rendered worthless their deeds} [Muhammad: 25-28].
This āyah explains the condition of one who says that he won’t mock the Messenger (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) himself, but he will only participate in the rallies that the crusaders call to against the mujāhidīn, in “solidarity” with the mockers. He obeys the kuffār “in part of the matter” – a part that is still kufr – and thereby apostatizes.
And if the Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) was forbidden from praying in the “masjid” built by the grayish hypocrites and destroyed it because it was secretly established for kufr and fitnah, how much more so is it an obligation to abandon “masājid” that blatantly raise the slogan “Je Suis Charlie” upon their walls and whose “imāms” defend the heretical concept of “free speech” to support the satanic newspaper?!
{And [there are] those [hypocrites] who took for themselves a masjid for causing harm and disbelief and division among the believers and as a station for whoever had warred against Allah and His Messenger before. And they will surely swear, “We intended only the best.” And Allah testifies that indeed they are liars. Do not stand [for prayer] within it – ever. A mosque founded on righteousness from the first day is more worthy for you to stand in. Within it are men who love to purify themselves; and Allah loves those who purify themselves. Then is one who laid the foundation of his building on righteousness [with fear] from Allah and [seeking] His approval better or one who laid the foundation of his building on the edge of a bank about to collapse, so it collapsed with him into the fire of Hell? And Allah does not guide the wrongdoing people. Their building which they built will not cease to be a [cause of] doubt in their hearts until their hearts are torn to pieces. And Allah is Knowing and Wise} [AtTawbah: 107-110].
Rasūlullāh (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) was the sword against the mushrikīn, and his greatest companion, Abū Bakr as-Siddīq (radiyallāhu ‘anh), was the sword against the murtaddīn… Where is this sword today to strike the necks of those apostate imāms so as to deter them from kufr and zandaqah (heresy)? If just one of them were killed, it would deter some of them and some of their followers from carrying on in their procession to Hellfire. Is there not a Muslim, whom Allah loves and who loves Allah, ready to perform jihād and spill the blood of such deviant callers?
Again, the announcement of the Khilāfah preceding the events in Europe further demolished the grayzone, as many Muslims living in Europe and the Americas justified their residency amongst the kuffār with the fact that the Muslims’ lands were under the rule of apostate tawāghīt. Now, with the presence of the Islamic State, the opportunity to perform hijrah from dārul-kufr to dārul-islām and wage jihād against the Crusaders, the Nusayriyyah, the Rāfidah, and the murtadd regimes and armies, is available to every Muslim as well as the chance to live under the shade of the Sharī’ah alone.
The presence of the Khilāfah also magnifies the political, social, economic, and emotional impact of any operation carried out by the mujāhidīn against the enraged crusaders. This magnified impact compels the crusaders to actively destroy the grayzone themselves, the zone in which many of the hypocrites and deviant innovators living in the West are hiding.
{And they will continue to fight you until they turn you back from your religion if they are able. And whoever of you reverts from his religion [to disbelief] and dies while he is a disbeliever – for those, their deeds have become worthless in this world and the Hereafter, and those are the companions of the Fire, they will abide therein eternally} [Al-Baqarah: 217]. {And never will the Jews or the Christians approve of you until you follow their religion. Say, “Indeed, the guidance of Allah is the [only] guidance.” If you were to follow their desires after what has come to you of knowledge, you would have against Allah no protector or helper} [Al-Baqarah: 120].
The Muslims in the West will quickly find themselves between one of two choices, they either apostatize and adopt the kufrī religion propagated by Bush, Obama, Blair, Cameron, Sarkozy, and Hollande in the name of Islam so as to live amongst the kuffār without hardship, or they perform hijrah to the Islamic State and thereby escape persecution from the crusader governments and citizens.
THE HIZBIYYĪN AND THE GRAYZONE
The grayzone was a region favored by the hypocrites whose traits and hidden intents were exposed by Allah (ta’ālā) in His Book and by His Messenger (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) in his Sunnah. They were revealed so that the Muslims take precaution against the hypocrites and act when it is necessary by unsheathing the sword against the hypocrites, if they blatantly display their hypocrisy. Sadly, those who had formed parties with the legitimate mission to wage jihād fī sabīlillāh quickly found themselves in a dilemma after the Khilāfah had been established. The world was now divided further between the Khilāfah on one side and the crusaders with their apostate agents on the other. If these jihād parties recognized this giant body representing Islam – the Khilāfah – they would be delegitimizing themselves, and thus would lose personal power and influence, including the ability to propagate bida’, in the case of those leaders blinded by irjā’.
They also realized that many groups and individuals belonging to the splintered Ummah were influenced by the leaders of the grayzone – the palace “scholars,” the deviant du’āt, and the heads of the deviant sects[The scholar of the Salaf, al-Fudayl Ibn ‘Iyād (rahimahullāh) said, “If I see a person from the people of Sunnah, then it is as if I see a person from the Companions of Rasūlullāh (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam); and if I see a person from the people of bida’ (deviant innovations), it is as if I saw a person from the munāfiqīn” [Sharh as-Sunnah – al-Barbahārī]. The hypocrites and zanādiqah (extreme heretics) are also famous for disguising themselves as mubtadi’ah (deviant innovators) and concealing their propaganda under such a cover.] and movements – all of them claiming to work for Islam. The jihādī parties found themselves in another dilemma. If they delegitimized the grayzone, they would also be delegitimizing the scholarship of those “scholars” representing the “Ummah”! And they did not have the courage to do so and could not abandon their fear of losing power, so they rejected the concept of a grayzone and struggled to prove the sincerity of the hypocrites… a mission doomed to fail and executed only for partisan interests.
Their blind-followers – the jihād claimants in Shām – tried the same before the Sahwah conspiracy by reviving different creeds of the Murji’ah – the Karrāmiyyah sect in particular, which denies the existence of hypocrisy. The scholar of the Salaf, Sufyān ath-Thawrī (rahimahullāh) said, “The difference between us and the Murji’ah is three matters. We say that īmān is statements and actions, whereas they say it is statements without actions. We say that īmān increases and decreases, whereas they say it neither increases nor decreases. We say that hypocrisy exists, whereas they say hypocrisy does not exist” [Sifat an-Nifāq – al-Firyābī].
Although the jihād claimants acknowledge the existence of hypocrisy, hypothetically, they don’t abide by the practical shar’ī rulings towards the hypocrites… Instead, they insist that they should be treated exactly like believers who do not display the traits of hypocrisy. And when the hypocrites are drowning in the darkest of suspicions, the jihād claimants insist upon giving them the benefit of doubt. And when the darkness of kufr is exhibited blatantly in the hypocrites’ words and actions, the jihādī claimants look for excuses to justify the hypocrites’ words, only to preserve the withering grayzone, and thereby justify their own existence as an entity independent of the Islamic State.
Amongst the most important traits of hypocrisy these jihād claimants regularly ignore is that the hypocrites (1) rush to the kuffār so as to gain power while (2) fearing calamity, (3) promising to obey the kuffār “in part of the matter,” (4) and speaking in a twofaced tone. {Give tidings to the hypocrites that there is for them a painful punishment – those who take disbelievers as allies instead of the believers. Do they seek with them might? But indeed, might belongs to Allah entirely} [An-Nisā’: 138-139].
{O you who have believed, do not take the Jews and the Christians as allies. They are allies of one another. And whoever is an ally to them among you – then indeed, he is one of them. Indeed, Allah guides not the wrongdoing people. So you see those in whose hearts is disease [hypocrisy] hastening to them, saying, “We are afraid a calamity may strike us.” But perhaps Allah will bring conquest or a decision from Him, and they will become, over what they have been concealing within themselves, regretful} [AlMā’idah: 51-52].[See also verses 25-31 of Sūrat Muhammad.]
{And if We willed, We could show them to you, and you would know them by their mark; but you will surely know them by the tone of [their] speech} [Muhammad: 30].
Another trait, in addition to the above, is they consider the aspirations of the Muhājirīn and Ansār to be a delusion induced by their religion.{Remember when the hypocrites and those in whose hearts was disease said, “Their religion has deluded those [Muslims].” But whoever relies upon Allah – then indeed, Allah is Exalted in Might and Wise} [Al-Anfāl: 49].
Shaykul-Islām Ibn Taymiyyah (rahimahullāh) said, “Sometimes the hypocrites say to the believers, ‘What has become of us is due to the bad luck you bring with you, for you called the people to this religion, fought them over it, and opposed them.’ This was the statement of the hypocrites to the believers from the Sahābah. Sometimes they say, ‘You told us to remain and stay here on this frontline until now, and if we had left before, we would not have been harmed by this calamity.’ Sometimes they say, ‘You – despite your small numbers and weakness – want to break the enemy? You have been deluded by your religion.’ … And sometimes they say, ‘You are crazy and without intelligence! You want to destroy yourselves and the people with you!’ And sometimes they say different kinds of extremely harmful speech” [Majmū’ al-Fatāwā].
Does this not all describe the condition of many of the factions prior to the launching of the Sahwah conspiracy? They rushed to the kuffār to gain power, while fearing calamity, promising to obey them “in part of the matter,” speaking with the marked tone of hypocrisy (vague statements that can be interpreted in ways favorable to the kuffār while possibly implying meanings of kufr), and considering the muhājirīn in Shām to be deluded for pronouncing the Millah (religion) of Ibrāhīm (‘alayhissalām)? Sometimes the hypocritical leaders of these factions would make deceptively elusive statements with a tone of secularism, democracy, and nationalism, and then have their “jihādī” allies voluntarily reinterpret these statements in a manner more suitable to the hypocrites’ claim of Islam. Their “jihādī” allies would in turn use these reinterpretations to calm the jealousy of their own sincere soldiers so as to preserve the grayzone where they could continue to reside as independent parties working peacefully alongside the hypocritical factions. And when the Sahwah factions finally executed their conspiracy against the muhājirīn and ansār, the jihād claimants – knowing fully of the conspiracy beforehand – insisted that the hypocrites did not openly apostatize by aiding the murtadd Syrian National Coalition (SNC) and the tāghūt of Āl Salūl against the mujāhidīn!
This was despite the fact that these jihād claimants knew of the deeply intricate but “hush-hush” relationship between the Sahwah factions and Āl Salūl and the SNC. And instead of aiding the mujāhidīn of the Islamic State, they aided the apostatizing factions! [The apostatizing hypocritical factions are those who moved from the grayzone to the camp of kufr by aiding the blatant murtaddīn – the secularist and democratic factions – against the mujāhidīn. They followed this treachery by making political declarations of kufr themselves. As for the blatant murtaddīn who had publicly called to democracy (the secularist and democratic factions), then they were never in the grayzone to begin with except in the eyes of the most extreme Murji’ah; but these democratic factions have become further exposed by the crusade they have rushed to support. These days, the jihād claimants have found themselves in another dilemma and it is that the “grayzone” they had for so long strived to preserve is abandoning them and now waging war against them. And so, the jihād claimants are forced to make “takfīrī” statements against their closest allies – the other Sahwah factions! Why have they not reflected over the mubāhalah that has doomed them? See pages 20-30 of issue #2 of Dābiq for further reading.
Furthermore, some of the jihād claimants find it impossible to consider as a munāfiq anyone who fights and claims to be a mujāhid. They forget that the hypocrites would fight battles but avoid those requiring difficult travel and having no prospective of war-booty. {Had it been an easy gain and a moderate trip, the hypocrites would have followed you, but distant to them was the journey} [At-Tawbah: 42]. They might travel for battle, as the leader of the hypocrites said during one expedition, {They say, “If we return to al-Madīnah, the more honored will surely expel therefrom the more humble.” And to Allah belongs [all] honor, and to His Messenger, and to the believers, but the hypocrites do not know} [Al-Munāfiqūn: 8]. They might even get killed in battle as described in the hadīth of the Prophet (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam), “The killed fighters are three types. The first is a believer who wages jihād fī sabīlillāh with his soul and wealth until he meets the enemy and fights until he is killed. He is the purified shahīd in Allah’s garden, beneath His throne. The Prophets are not better than him except by the degree of prophethood. The other man is he who fears for himself because of his sins and misdeeds, so he wages jihād fī sabīlillāh with his soul and wealth until he meets the enemy and fights until he is killed. This is a purification that erases his sins and misdeeds. Indeed, the sword erases misdeeds. He will also be entered from any of the gates of Jannah that he desires … The last is a hypocrite who wages jihād with his soul and wealth until he meets the enemy and fights until he is killed. He is in Hellfire for the sword does not erase hypocrisy” [Hasan: Reported by Imām Ahmad, Ibn Hibbān, and others]. The difference between the battle fought by the believer and that fought by the hypocrite is that the hypocrite fights only for fame, war booty, zeal, nationalism, conspiracy, and pride while claiming to fight fī sabīlillāh.]
They forgot the verses in the Qur’ān explaining the obligation upon the Muslims towards the hypocrites, never mind the obligation upon the mujāhidīn towards the murtaddīn…
They forgot that the hypocrites are not to be taken as allies nor friends, {O you who have believed, do not take as intimates those other than yourselves, for they will not spare you [any] ruin. They wish you would have hardship. Hatred has already appeared from their mouths, and what their breasts conceal is greater. We have certainly made clear to you the signs, if you will use reason. Here you are loving them but they are not loving you, while you believe in the Scripture – all of it. And when they meet you, they say, “We believe.” But when they are alone, they bite their fingertips at you in rage. Say, “Die in your rage. Indeed, Allah is Knowing of that within the breasts”} [Āl ‘Imrān: 118-119].
They forgot that the hypocrites are to be turned away from, not listened to, and scorned severely, {Those are the ones of whom Allah knows what is in their hearts, so turn away from them but admonish them and speak to them a far-reaching word} [An-Nisā: 63].
The forgot that the hypocrites are not to be defended in speech, {Indeed, We have revealed to you the Book in truth so you may judge between the people by that which Allah has shown you. And do not be for the treacherous an advocate. And seek forgiveness of Allah. Indeed, Allah is ever Forgiving and Merciful. And do not argue on behalf of those who betray themselves. Indeed, Allah loves not one who is a habitually sinful traitor. They conceal [their evil intentions and deeds] from the people, but they cannot conceal them from Allah, and He is with them when they spend the night in speech He does not approve. And ever is Allah, of what they do, encompassing} [An-Nisā’: 105-108].
They forgot that the hypocrites are not to be addressed with respect nor appointed as leaders. Rasūlullāh (sallallāhu ‘alayhi wa sallam) said, “Do not refer to the hypocrite with the words ‘our sayyid’ (our leader), for if he is your sayyid, then you have angered your Lord” [Sahīh: Reported by Imām Ahmad, Abū Dāwūd, and an-Nasā’ī].
All of these orders – including that to fight the hypocrites if they openly expose their hypocrisy [See verse 73 of Sūrat at-Tawbah, verse 9 of Sūrat at-Tahrīm, and verses 60-62 of Sūrat al-Ahzāb.] – contain practical instructions for the believers to implement. If hypocrisy were a theoretical concept having no consequences in the Dunyā, such orders would be meaningless. It is this understanding of faith, in accordance with the creed of Ahlus-Sunnah, that guided the mujāhidīn in their fight against the hypocritical factions turned apostate factions. It is also the absence of this creed amongst the leadership of the jihād claimants that led them to support these factions against the mujāhidīn and insist that these factions were never hypocrites, never mind apostates!
And instead of realizing the great danger of the hypocrites, {And when you see them, their forms please you, and if they speak, you listen to their speech. [They are] as if they were pieces of wood propped up – they think that every shout is against them. They are the enemy, so beware of them. May Allah destroy them; how are they deluded?} [Al-Munāfiqūn: 4], they befriended the hypocrites and listened to them, {The hypocrite men and hypocrite women are of one another. They enjoin what is wrong and forbid what is right and close their hands. They have forgotten Allah, so He has forgotten them [accordingly]. Indeed, the hypocrites – it is they who are the defiantly disobedient} [At-Tawbah: 67].
They then treated the hypocrites as the believers should be treated while forgetting, {Or should we treat those who believe and do righteous deeds like corrupters in the land? Or should We treat those who fear Allah like the wicked?} [Sād: 28]. {Then will We treat the Muslims like the criminals? What is [the matter] with you? How do you judge?} [Al-Qalam: 35-36]. {Or do those who commit evils think We will make them like those who have believed and done righteous deeds – [make them] equal in their life and their death? Evil is that which they judge} [Al-Jāthiyah: 21].
Accordingly, hypocrisy to them is a theoretical condition with no practical consequences. And if the hypocrites join the camp of apostasy (the trenches of the secularist and democratic factions), extreme irjā’ prevents the jihād claimants from making any ruling of riddah upon these hypocrites. The extreme Murji’ah instead exaggerate the excuse of ignorance to encompass the very basis of the religion, the religious teachings that every Muslim must necessarily know, and even the undeniable facts related to the wāqi’ upon which different shar’ī rulings are based.
It is this experience that the jihād claimants of Shām faced that the different jihād parties all over the world should reflect over before insisting on a “neutral” and “independent” position that is neither with the Khilāfah nor with the crusaders and apostates but in the withering “grayzone” between the two, before they find themselves unwittingly steered towards the camp of falsehood.
TWO CAMPS WITH NO THIRD IN BETWEEN
As the world progresses towards al-Malhamah al-Kubrā, the option to stand on the sidelines as a mere observer is being lost. As those with hearts diseased by hypocrisy and bid’ah are driven towards the camp of kufr, those with a mustard seed of sincerity and Sunnah are driven towards the camp of īmān.
Muslims in the crusader countries will find themselves driven to abandon their homes for a place to live in the Khilāfah, as the crusaders increase persecution against Muslims living in Western lands so as to force them into a tolerable sect of apostasy in the name of “Islam” before forcing them into blatant Christianity and democracy.
Muslims in the lands ruled by the apostate tawāghīt will find themselves driven to the wilāyāt of the Islamic State, as the tawāghīt increase their imprisonment of any Muslim they think might have a mustard seed of jealousy for his religion, or lead them to apostatize by working as agents, soldiers, and puppets serving the banner of the tāghūt.
Mujāhidīn in the lands of jihād will find themselves driven to join the ranks of the Khilāfah, or forced to wage war against it on the side of those willing to cooperate with the munāfiqīn and murtaddīn against the Khilāfah. If they do not execute these treacherous orders, they will be considered khawārij by their leaders and face the sword of “independent” courts infiltrated by the Sufis, the Ikhwān, and the Salūlī sects.
Eventually, the grayzone will become extinct and there will be no place for grayish calls and movements. There will only be the camp of īmān versus the camp of kufr.
Then, when ‘Īsā (‘alayhis-salām) descends, breaks the cross, and abolishes the jizyah, there will not be any place left for the camp of kufr to exist on the Earth, not even as humbled dhimmī subjects living amongst the Muslims in the camp of truth… Thereafter, the Beast [See the different authentic and weak narrations describing this beast in Ibn Kathīr’s tafsīr of Sūrat an-Naml, verse 82; wallāhu a’lam.]will appear and mark the hypocrites who remained as individuals hidden in the camp of truth, thereby bringing an end to hypocrisy on the individual level after the Malāhim had finished hypocrisy on the level of calls and movements…
[Taken From Dabiq issue 7 Page 54-67]
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